Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b4a…8a46 crypto 393 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$128 (-1%) realized −$98 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%242W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$476
7 days−$168
14 days+$683
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$243
other 30% +$262
finance 23% −$538
sports 3% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 48% -7.5%
≤30d 356 -8.6% -17.3% 64% 44% -9.8%
≤90d 379 -4.9% -14.0% 62% 43% -10.0%
all 387 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 44% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 44% -9.8%
10% -21.1% 32% -18.5%
15% -28.7% 22% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 14% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$42 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses242 / 145
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)387 / 393
History coverage107d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 64¢ 78¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 75¢ 60¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? No 47¢ 32¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Up 44¢ 41¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$25 -49%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$66 -65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $222 +$104 +47%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $146 −$126 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $204 −$177 -86%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $152 +$62 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $253 −$170 -67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $155 +$70 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $156 −$130 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$287 +94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $204 +$78 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $102 +$41 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $102 −$39 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $204 −$202 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$48 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $103 +$62 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$16 +31%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $258 +$190 +74%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $51 +$34 +67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$64 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +107%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$27 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$29 +29%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$50 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 15m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 47¢ $104 35m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 75¢ $101 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 44¢ $10 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 11h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 100¢ $23 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $36 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 64¢ $103 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 17h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 44¢ $10 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $28 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 18h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $214 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $153 25h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 68¢ $152 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $103 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $78 36h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $101 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $529.84 · official $533.86 (match) · 868 history records