Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b4a…8599 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%25W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$8
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1
other 23% +$1
politics 18% $0
sports 10% −$7
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 30 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 79 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 1% -9.5%
all 81 -2.2% -11.5% 31% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses25 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage533d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $12 $0 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $67 +$5 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $35 +$4 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $71 −$4 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $67 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $35 −$3 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $43 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $44 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $36 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $45 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $1 $0 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $84 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $23 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $42 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $62 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $3 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $44 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $19 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $11 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $43 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $39 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $26 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $26 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $43 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $43 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $38 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records