Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b47…d814 sports 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1620 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$661,252 (+68%) realized +$660,146 · open +$1,106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%32W / 49L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$9,382per market
Trades / day1619.8pace
Fees−$2,363est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$242,613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$27,887
sports 17% +$35,505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1620 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 37% -8.7%
≤30d 81 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 37% -8.7%
≤90d 81 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 37% -8.7%
all 81 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 37% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1619.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 37% -8.7%
10% -25.5% 32% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -32.7% 30% -25.4%
20% -39.3% 26% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,959) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
32.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14,041 vs −$9,037 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$242,613
Realized+$660,146
Unrealized+$1,106
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses32 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,363
Open positions31
Markets (closed)81 / 104
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$9,382
Trades / day1619.8
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 37¢ 38¢ $161,709 $163,318 +$1,609 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 49¢ 48¢ $33,279 $32,871 −$408 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 46¢ 45¢ $14,700 $14,452 −$247 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 43¢ 40¢ $7,765 $7,319 −$446 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 20¢ 2¢ $47,158 $5,898 −$41,260 (-87%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $4,758 $4,983 +$225 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $2,558 $2,487 −$70 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 68¢ $2,914 $2,399 −$516 (-18%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 89¢ 100¢ $1,485 $1,654 +$169 (+11%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,406 $1,457 +$51 (+4%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 94¢ 90¢ $1,024 $988 −$36 (-3%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 100¢ $881 $917 +$37 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $639 $639 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $567 $616 +$49 (+9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 40¢ 40¢ $613 $610 −$3 (-0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 76¢ $335 $342 +$7 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $278 $275 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $196 $195 −$1 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 79¢ 80¢ $192 $193 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $189 $190 +$1 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 50¢ 49¢ $123 $120 −$2 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $112 $115 +$3 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Over 31¢ 21¢ $121 $83 −$39 (-32%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 69¢ $68 $79 +$11 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20,419 −$20,419 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $83,234 −$83,234 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $778 −$616 -79%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,082 +$2,085 +51%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $50 −$42 -83%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2,266 −$2,266 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $61,972 −$61,972 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $14 +$12 +83%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $14 +$11 +76%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $129,714 −$129,714 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $60 +$44 +74%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $62 +$44 +70%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10,516 +$5,178 +49%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40,565 −$40,382 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,875 −$1,652 -88%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $223 +$287 +129%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,628 +$5,005 +307%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25,162 +$24,413 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3,067 +$16,590 +541%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $155 +$8 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $137,324 +$338,239 +246%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $28 +$18 +65%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $33 +$21 +65%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $621 +$78 +12%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $458 +$379 +83%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,573 +$4,970 +316%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $9,530 +$15,749 +165%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $13,103 +$27,092 +207%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14,930 −$4,383 -29%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $825 +$55 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 2¢ $26 1m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 2¢ $27 1m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 2¢ $0 2m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 2¢ $0 2m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 2¢ $0 2m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 2¢ $1 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $9 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $117 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $114 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $719 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $1 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $3 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $117 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $1,157 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $5 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $1,110 5m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $150 5m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $7 6m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $381 9m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $242 10m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $362 10m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $11 10m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $14 10m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $1,390 10m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $206 10m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $1,098 10m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $450 11m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 36¢ $1,243 12m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $2,283 14m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $3,915 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242,612.81 · official $242,612.83 (match) · 3500 history records