Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b47…b2fb world 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 27% +$2
politics 27% +$10
sports 4% −$30
finance 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 11% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +2.8% -7.0% 35% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 42 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 7% -10.7%
all 56 +10.4% -0.1% 38% 16% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 16% -11.0%
10% -9.7% 11% -19.5%
15% -18.4% 9% -27.3%
20% -26.4% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage528d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $39 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $124 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $122 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $16 −$1 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $38 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +42%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $71 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $29 +$3 +9%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 +5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 +$1 +15%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $47 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $45 +$2 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $90 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $3 $0 +3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $337 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $37 −$36 -96%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $567 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $279 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $306 $0 +0%
UMBC vs. UMass Lowell Mar 04 $70 −$70 -100%
NHL 4 Nations: Finland vs. Canada Feb 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $59 +$11 +19%
Alabama A&M vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Feb 17 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Aston Villa vs. Ipswich end in a draw? Feb 17 $10 +$40 +426%
Tennessee Tech vs. SE Missouri State Feb 15 $17 $0 +0%
Seattle vs. Abilene Christian Feb 15 $3 +$4 +133%
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Feb 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $44 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $44 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $44 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $40 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $39 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $39 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $39 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $28 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $6 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $40 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $18 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.35 · official $43.60 (match) · 232 history records