Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1b46…aea6
crypto · 947 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$160 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$159 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses498 / 447
Open positions2
Markets (closed)945 / 947
History coverage28d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 945 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$359
14 days−$150
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 62¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$160
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 654 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 47% -16.3%
≤30d 945 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 51% -11.8%
≤90d 945 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 51% -11.8%
all 945 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 51% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 51% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 46% -20.3%
15% -27.1% 37% -28.0%
20% -34.2% 25% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.91 · official $5.55 (match) · 2095 history records