Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b45…9f3b crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$794per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$11
14 days−$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.9% -27.5% 80% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 -47.2% -52.3% 53% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 25 -59.9% -63.7% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -59.9% -63.7% 40% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -67.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -70.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -73.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,047) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -75% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage42d
Avg bet$794
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? Jun 27 $2,047 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,043 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,039 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,035 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 7? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? Jun 07 $2,071 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,071 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2,066 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2,063 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,059 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,056 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 27? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 21? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 18? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 16? May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $2,047 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,043 22h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,039 26h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,035 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 17d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 17d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $583 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $1,487 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,071 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,066 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,063 21d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $2,059 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,056 22d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 25d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 21? BUY No 0¢ $4 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 39d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 16? BUY No 0¢ $6 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.25 · official $5.25 (match) · 40 history records