Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b44…6e8d crypto 789 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,035 (+6%) realized +$2,027 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%483W / 303L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,106
7 days−$1,299
14 days−$1,278
30 days−$1,502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$1,613
sports 23% +$30
other 1% −$118
politics 0% −$101
world 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -35.3% -41.5% 35% 32% -55.5%
≤30d 522 -7.9% -16.7% 60% 45% -16.5%
≤90d 786 -2.4% -11.7% 61% 48% -11.0%
all 786 -2.4% -11.7% 61% 48% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 48% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 38% -19.6%
15% -27.9% 29% -27.3%
20% -35.0% 19% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$2,027
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses483 / 303
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions3
Markets (closed)786 / 789
History coverage41d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 786 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 45¢ 80¢ $25 $45 +$20 (+79%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 77¢ 98¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$25 -49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shots Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
SK Brann vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $122 −$74 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $73 −$31 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $121 −$108 -90%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $25 −$6 -24%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $25 −$24 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $25 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$17 -34%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $30 +$18 +60%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $30 +$15 +50%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $22 −$17 -77%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 +$13 +65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $20 −$13 -66%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $25 +$9 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $30 +$9 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 58m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $20 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 45¢ $25 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $8 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 13h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $25 13h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Los Angeles Sparks 100¢ $40 22h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 47¢ $19 22h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 75¢ $30 24h
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 80¢ $30 24h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 3¢ $1 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $81 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 58¢ $51 24h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 69¢ $25 24h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 24h
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Spurs 63¢ $26 25h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) SELL Knicks 57¢ $16 25h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $15 26h
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 60¢ $25 27h
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shots BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 59¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 29h
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $20 36h
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 47¢ $20 36h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.73 · official $82.73 (match) · 2206 history records