Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1b44…be52 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,234 (+24%) realized +$1,234 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$229
other 16% +$814
crypto 6% +$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +30.9% +18.5% 65% 53% +12.5%
≤30d 17 +30.9% +18.5% 65% 53% +12.5%
≤90d 17 +30.9% +18.5% 65% 53% +12.5%
all 17 +30.9% +18.5% 65% 53% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.5% 53% +12.5%
10% ← realistic here +7.1% 47% +1.7%
15% -3.2% 47% -8.1%
20% -12.7% 41% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$109 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $222 +$190 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $77 +$44 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $98 +$2 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $230 +$36 +16%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $57 +$148 +262%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $150 +$172 +115%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,138 +$48 +4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $201 +$183 +91%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $111 +$120 +108%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $9 −$3 -29%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $59 −$18 -30%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $29 −$17 -59%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,220 −$596 -49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $471 +$521 +111%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,066 +$446 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Under 77¢ $100 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 73¢ $265 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $98 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $230 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 19¢ $105 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records