Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b44…6cca other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$156 (+16%) realized +$150 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days+$165
14 days+$165
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$12
sports 43% +$164
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +9.5% -0.9% 52% 48% +6.4%
≤30d 33 +9.5% -0.9% 52% 48% +6.4%
≤90d 33 +9.5% -0.9% 52% 48% +6.4%
all 33 +9.5% -0.9% 52% 48% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 48% +6.4%
10% -10.4% 45% -3.7%
15% -19.0% 45% -13.0%
20% -27.0% 30% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage9d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$17 -65%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $84 +$37 +44%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $113 +$48 +43%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$16 -66%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 +$47 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $64 +$35 +55%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $55 +$5 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$4 +19%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $54 −$8 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$29 +59%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$28 +122%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 −$14 -41%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$17 +112%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $9 +$6 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$52 +104%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$30 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 44m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 49m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $37 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $70 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $31 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $31 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $164 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $45 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $32 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $82 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.23 · official $15.21 (match) · 109 history records