Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b42…f52b world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%28W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
other 19% −$4
politics 15% +$1
sports 14% −$6
economics 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.2% -5.7% 33% 33% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +21.5% +10.0% 48% 13% -9.4%
≤90d 68 +6.3% -3.8% 34% 4% -9.6%
all 78 +1.5% -8.1% 36% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 5% -9.9%
10% -16.9% 4% -18.5%
15% -24.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -32.3% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses28 / 50
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage526d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $47 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $113 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $87 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $36 +$3 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $71 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $153 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $177 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $81 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $80 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $124 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $4 $0 -4%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $37 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $84 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $43 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $14 $0 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $6 $0 -8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 14 $1 $0 -20%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $21 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $12 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $20 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $37 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $45 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $31 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $41 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $46 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $46 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $47 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $46 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 19¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 19¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $19 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $32 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.55 · official $0.00 · 351 history records