Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1B 0x1b40…0867 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$97
sports 34% −$129
world 2% +$84
crypto 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +11.7% +1.0% 62% 62% -11.3%
≤30d 32 +11.7% +1.0% 62% 62% -11.3%
≤90d 32 +11.7% +1.0% 62% 62% -11.3%
all 36 +14.6% +3.7% 61% 61% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 61% -9.1%
10% -6.2% 56% -17.8%
15% -15.3% 50% -25.7%
20% -23.6% 42% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$47 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage129d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Curaçao 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $41 +$50 +124%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$62 +152%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$55 +135%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $9 +$23 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $151 −$150 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $171 +$20 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 28 $30 +$42 +140%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$42 +212%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Feb 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $41 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $31 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 62¢ $20 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $20 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $30 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $20 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 75¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 57¢ $203 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 4d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 28¢ $9 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $151 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.12 · official $233.12 (match) · 79 history records