Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b3f…b72d crypto 569 markets active 3d ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$743 (-5%) realized −$743 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%300W / 269L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day78.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$879
14 days−$796
30 days−$1,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$379
world 24% +$115
other 15% −$783
tech 2% +$6
politics 0% −$38
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -17.1% -25.0% 48% 34% -27.8%
≤30d 568 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 39% -17.0%
≤90d 569 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 38% -17.0%
all 569 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 38% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 38% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 30% -25.0%
15% -30.1% 22% -32.2%
20% -36.9% 18% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$743
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses300 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)569 / 569
History coverage29d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day78.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 569 Trades
no open positions (179 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $264 −$260 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $168 +$96 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $587 −$519 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$9 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$29 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$7 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$16 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $874 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $811 +$63 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $51 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$17 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $57 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$20 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $264 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $264 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $168 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $68 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2562 history records