Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b3e…ae5b sports 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized +$20 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%58W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$257
other 11% +$118
politics 1% +$6
world 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +73.4% +56.9% 46% 39% -1.7%
≤30d 47 +33.1% +20.4% 47% 36% -7.2%
≤90d 140 -0.7% -10.1% 41% 30% -10.0%
all 140 -0.7% -10.1% 41% 30% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 30% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 22% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 16% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses58 / 82
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions3
Markets (closed)140 / 143
History coverage56d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Philip Henning 84¢ 86¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron $50 $2 −$48 (-95%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 55¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $152 +$22 +15%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $101 +$17 +16%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $111 +$13 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $111 −$1 -1%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $20 +$29 +144%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 15 $100 −$4 -4%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $31 +$14 +46%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $76 −$5 -7%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $192 −$6 -3%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$48 +232%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $20 −$4 -20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $71 −$5 -7%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $14 +$8 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $172 −$73 -43%
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $121 +$1 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $51 −$19 -37%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $30 −$1 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $91 +$8 +9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $41 −$2 -5%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Thiago Seyboth Wild May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $136 −$11 -8%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Slovakia May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 19 $81 −$65 -81%
Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon May 19 $81 +$16 +20%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 19 $70 +$15 +21%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nerman Fatic vs Luka Mikrut May 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $31 +$31 +101%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Alvaro Guillen Meza May 19 $20 −$5 -24%
Bengaluru 3: Grigoriy Lomakin vs Alex Hernandez May 19 $165 +$12 +7%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura May 19 $71 +$19 +27%
Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong May 19 $71 $0 +0%
Bengaluru 3: Digvijaypratap Singh vs Leo Vithoontien May 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $81 +$38 +47%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas May 18 $24 −$9 -35%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Jack Pin May 04 $132 −$41 -31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo De May 04 $101 −$64 -63%
Jiujiang: Zongyu Li vs Wushuang Zheng May 04 $60 +$25 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 84¢ $141 19m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron $51 25m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 80¢ $83 37m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Max Hans Rehberg 46¢ $81 55m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 55¢ $101 56m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $51 57m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon SELL Bernard Tomic 95¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon SELL Bernard Tomic 85¢ $21 1h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon SELL Bernard Tomic 85¢ $13 1h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon SELL Bernard Tomic 85¢ $91 1h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 67¢ $101 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Zsombor Piros 50¢ $62 4h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Zsombor Piros 50¢ $1 4h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Zsombor Piros 50¢ $15 4h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 32¢ $51 4h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 69¢ $96 4h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 71¢ $101 4h
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Evan Zhu 36¢ $10 6h
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Tianhui Zhang 14¢ $10 6h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $10 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $24 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $1 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $14 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $14 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $1 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 43¢ $50 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 38¢ $4 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $51 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 62¢ $51 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 90¢ $112 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.85 · official $145.85 (match) · 464 history records