Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b3d…8ad6 weather 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$348 (-11%) realized −$347 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate48%126W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% −$303
crypto 38% −$75
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.5% 75% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 13 +18.5% +7.2% 38% 15% -21.6%
≤90d 224 -21.2% -28.7% 42% 19% -32.5%
all 262 -12.5% -20.8% 48% 27% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 27% -20.7%
10% -28.4% 18% -28.3%
15% -35.3% 11% -35.2%
20% -41.7% 8% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$347
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses126 / 136
Open positions2
Markets (closed)262 / 264
History coverage120d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 15? Yes 80¢ 63¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 19 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 19 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 19 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 5? May 05 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 5? May 05 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on May 5? May 05 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $16 −$11 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $87 −$84 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on May 5? May 04 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 04 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 5? May 04 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 5? May 04 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 4? May 04 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 04 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? May 04 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 3? May 03 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 3? May 03 $92 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 03 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 3? May 03 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma May 03 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 3? May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 3? May 03 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 3? May 03 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on April 30? Apr 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 30? Apr 30 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C or higher on April Apr 30 $21 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 29 Apr 30 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 29 Apr 30 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 80¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 99¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $8 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.38 · official $4.38 (match) · 698 history records