Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b3d…dcf9 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-8%) realized −$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$9
other 5% −$3
sports 5% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -36.4% -42.5% 28% 22% -26.9%
≤30d 18 -36.4% -42.5% 28% 22% -26.9%
≤90d 18 -36.4% -42.5% 28% 22% -26.9%
all 18 -36.4% -42.5% 28% 22% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.5% 22% -26.9%
10% ← realistic here -48.0% 17% -33.9%
15% -53.0% 17% -40.3%
20% -57.6% 17% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 10m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 96 history records