Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b3d…1ff9 crypto 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-5%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%101W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$66
14 days−$47
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -73.8% -76.3% 17% 17% -85.6%
≤30d 50 +7.7% -2.6% 60% 58% -29.0%
≤90d 181 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 55% -15.9%
all 181 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 55% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 55% -15.9%
10% -20.2% 55% -23.9%
15% -27.9% 48% -31.3%
20% -35.0% 41% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses101 / 80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage78d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $23 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$15 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $64 −$50 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 01 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 01 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $8 +$7 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $12 +$14 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 31 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $8 +$10 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 29 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $6 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 29 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 28 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 27 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 27 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 27 $8 +$5 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 26 $4 +$3 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 624 history records