Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1b3c…a397 crypto 770 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,749 (+24%) realized +$1,749 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%386W / 384L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$133
14 days+$15
30 days+$1,549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$198
politics 15% +$1,231
sports 12% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -11.5% -20.0% 46% 46% -6.2%
≤30d 770 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 50% +10.0%
≤90d 770 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 50% +10.0%
all 770 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 50% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 50% +10.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 49% -0.6%
15% -27.1% 49% -10.2%
20% -34.2% 49% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,749
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses386 / 384
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)770 / 770
History coverage29d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 770 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$36 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1719 history records