Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b39…daa9 sports 148 markets active 1d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$828 (+5%) realized +$836 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%74W / 72L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$23
14 days+$51
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$459
world 21% +$281
other 9% +$64
tech 0% −$16
weather 0% −$2
politics 0% −$7
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.7% -11.1% 47% 38% -8.6%
≤30d 90 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 31% -7.1%
≤90d 146 -7.9% -16.7% 51% 32% -5.4%
all 146 -7.9% -16.7% 51% 32% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 32% -5.4%
10% -24.7% 23% -14.5%
15% -32.0% 16% -22.8%
20% -38.6% 12% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$9 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$836
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses74 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage69d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-53%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $184 +$47 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $150 +$35 +23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$2 -10%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $12 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,020 −$92 -9%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +95%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$10 +191%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$5 +281%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $661 +$73 +11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$3 +68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $16 −$11 -68%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $52 −$25 -48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $673 +$36 +5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $9 −$6 -69%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 -36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $6 +$7 +126%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $39 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $28 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$5 +36%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $26 +$12 +44%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$10 +93%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$5 -47%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $13 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $1 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $1 31h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 97¢ $231 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 77¢ $184 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 70¢ $54 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 70¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 70¢ $43 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 70¢ $58 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 70¢ $2 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 70¢ $23 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $150 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $18 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 64¢ $46 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 64¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 64¢ $67 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $26 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $150 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $167 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $0 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 84¢ $8 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.75 · official $5.75 (match) · 495 history records