Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b33…384b crypto 71 markets active 4d ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-14%) realized −$82 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%35W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$37
sports 12% −$51
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 43% -59.6%
≤30d 7 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 43% -59.6%
≤90d 70 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 47% -22.8%
all 70 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 47% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 47% -22.8%
10% -20.4% 43% -30.2%
15% -28.1% 34% -36.9%
20% -35.1% 26% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses35 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage80d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +43%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $3 +$5 +152%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 30 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 30 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 30 $4 +$4 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 30 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 30 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 30 $20 +$23 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 30 $3 +$6 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 29 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 29 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 29 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 27 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 27 $2 +$8 +418%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 27 $3 +$8 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 27 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 27 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 27 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 27 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 27 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 27 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 27 $11 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 13¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 6d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $8 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $17 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $3 6d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $3 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $40 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $40 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $20 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.45 · official $8.45 (match) · 112 history records