Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1b31…42e6 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-3%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate64%18W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$81
other 6% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +16.7% +5.6% 64% 61% -9.7%
≤30d 28 +16.7% +5.6% 64% 61% -9.7%
≤90d 28 +16.7% +5.6% 64% 61% -9.7%
all 28 +16.7% +5.6% 64% 61% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 61% -9.7%
10% -4.5% 54% -18.3%
15% -13.8% 46% -26.2%
20% -22.2% 32% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$36 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$11 +55%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$20 +63%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams t Jun 17 $7 +$25 +384%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $13 −$8 -59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $9 −$1 -15%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $29 +$10 +34%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 +$18 +72%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $14 +$7 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +72%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$8 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $18 +$7 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 −$23 -77%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $366 −$170 -46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $108 −$107 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $185 +$14 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $179 +$85 +48%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $156 +$23 +14%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 −$14 -13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $141 +$29 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$40 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a dra BUY 24¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $20 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 61¢ $31 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams t BUY 20¢ $7 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 49¢ $3 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $5 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $13 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 56¢ $8 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $39 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $29 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $42 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $12 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $14 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 61¢ $12 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 63 history records