Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b2e…f0e2 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$31 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$15
crypto 22% −$34
other 22% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -5.2% -14.3% 41% 41% +5.6%
≤30d 27 -5.2% -14.3% 41% 41% +5.6%
≤90d 27 -5.2% -14.3% 41% 41% +5.6%
all 27 -5.2% -14.3% 41% 41% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 41% +5.6%
10% -22.5% 41% -4.5%
15% -29.9% 33% -13.7%
20% -36.8% 30% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)27 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 33¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+203%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Over 48¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+46%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 30¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 78¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 33¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$10 +65%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$8 -50%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$8 +74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$18 -87%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -44%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$9 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$10 +65%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $21 +$24 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $5 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 30h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $5 32h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $18 32h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $10 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 36h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $3 36h
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? SELL Yes $0 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $1 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $0 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.20 · official $14.98 (match) · 56 history records