Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b2b…51c2 sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$200 (-3%) realized −$174 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%76W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$51
14 days−$55
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$465
crypto 29% −$18
other 1% +$88
politics 1% +$26
world 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 57% 52% +7.6%
≤30d 58 -29.9% -36.6% 41% 33% -32.3%
≤90d 87 -22.3% -29.7% 39% 33% -20.5%
all 149 -16.6% -24.5% 51% 38% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 38% -14.5%
10% -31.7% 26% -22.7%
15% -38.3% 17% -30.2%
20% -44.4% 13% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses76 / 73
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage141d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $22 +$5 +23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 −$9 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 +$5 +59%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Jo Jun 13 $5 +$1 +30%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $16 +$14 +90%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$10 +82%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 11 $14 +$22 +152%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs Ding Cuts (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $23 +$8 +35%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $35 +$14 +38%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Mia Ristic vs. Tena Lukas: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$7 +78%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $30 −$18 -61%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $19 +$21 +110%
Rainbow Six Siege: PSYKN Company vs Weibo Gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 10 $8 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $29 −$19 -68%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $50 −$45 -90%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $37 +$4 +10%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $51 +$5 +9%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $51 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $17 +$26 +155%
Hugo Dellien vs. Max Schoenhaus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $12 +$8 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -92%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner May 28 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 28 $46 +$44 +94%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner May 28 $14 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU - Map 1 Winner May 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs 25 cents (+1.5) May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Map Handicap: SAW (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 2 Winner May 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner May 20 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner May 20 $146 −$146 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 20 $18 +$4 +25%
ITF Estepona: Alice Gillan vs Mariam Bolkvadze May 20 $201 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Falcons Force - Map 1 Winner May 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ALGO Esports - Map 2 Winner May 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Melilla Titans vs HAVENs (BO3) - Exort Series Contende May 19 $138 +$68 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 53¢ $27 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $11 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 11¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 25¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 16¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 14¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $2 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Jo SELL Noir Verse 60¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Jo BUY Noir Verse 56¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Jo BUY Noir Verse 35¢ $2 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 5d
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Oasis Gaming 55¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.86 (match) · 452 history records