Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b2a…705f world 80 markets active 14h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-9%) realized −$16 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%42W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
crypto 17% −$3
other 16% +$1
politics 9% −$1
culture 5% −$3
finance 5% −$4
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.7% +6.5% 83% 50% +9.2%
≤30d 19 +2.8% -7.0% 68% 53% -13.4%
≤90d 69 -9.2% -17.9% 61% 54% -22.6%
all 69 -9.2% -17.9% 61% 54% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 54% -22.6%
10% -25.7% 41% -30.0%
15% -32.9% 28% -36.8%
20% -39.5% 17% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)69 / 80
History coverage71d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? No 21¢ 86¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+310%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 46¢ 58¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No 67¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 59¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Yes 31¢ 11¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-65%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -82%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +51%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +35%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $7 −$4 -62%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 +27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 +15%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 22 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +9%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 20 $1 $0 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +23%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 16 $2 −$1 -71%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 08 $3 $0 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 08 $1 +$1 +70%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 12¢ $0 13h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $3 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $2 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $1 5d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $1 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 9d
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $1 17d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $1 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $1 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $1 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 21d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 22d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 39¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 48¢ $1 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? SELL Yes 96¢ $4 25d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $0 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 27d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 SELL Yes 9¢ $1 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 28d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 28d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 28d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.55 · official $26.55 (match) · 189 history records