Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:19:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b26…4e6c politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$1
politics 32% −$1
other 17% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -9.3% -18.0% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -8.2% -16.9% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -2.5% -11.8% 19% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage225d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1 $0 -53%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $108 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $106 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $213 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 29 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $107 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $2 $0 -14%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 29 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 15 $220 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $85 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 08 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $103 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $101 37h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $101 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 7d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 18d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 20d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $108 20d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $108 22d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 29d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 41d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 132d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $106 135d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $106 140d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 141d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $102 142d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $102 143d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $102 145d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $102 148d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $106 149d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $107 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.35 · official $104.35 (match) · 221 history records