Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

1B 0x1b26…affd politics 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover

Total PnL +$18 (+20%) realized +$21 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +153% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +111% what you keep after slip

Net edge+111%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day15.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+128.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+152.9%	+128.8%	100%	100%	+128.8%
≤30d	1	+152.9%	+128.8%	100%	100%	+128.8%
≤90d	1	+152.9%	+128.8%	100%	100%	+128.8%
all	1	+152.9%	+128.8%	100%	100%	+128.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+128.8%	100%	+128.8%
10%	+106.9%	100%	+106.9%
15%	+86.9%	100%	+86.9%
20%	+68.6%	100%	+68.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +153% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +153% · $-wt +153% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$8 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$22

Realized+$21

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions10

Markets (closed)1 / 11

History coverage6d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day15.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$7	$14	+$7 (+98%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$7	$5	−$3 (-35%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$4	$2	−$3 (-62%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$0 (-15%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-53%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$0 (-50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-75%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-50%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-90%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-95%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$5	+$8	+153%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	78¢	$13	59m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	30¢	$5	1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	4¢	$2	10h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	10h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	4¢	$4	10h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	4¢	$4	10h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	11h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	11h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	11h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	4¢	$2	12h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	3¢	$7	14h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	22h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	22h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	27h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	27h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	28h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	28h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	28h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	28h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	34h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	34h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	34h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	35h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	35h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	35h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.86 · official $21.86 (match) · 83 history records