Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1B 0x1b25…e4bc other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

Total PnL −$11 (-29%) realized −$6 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate39%9W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day22.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$6

7 days−$6

14 days−$6

30 days−$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-18.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-9.9%	-18.5%	39%	35%	-25.9%
≤30d	23	-9.9%	-18.5%	39%	35%	-25.9%
≤90d	23	-9.9%	-18.5%	39%	35%	-25.9%
all	23	-9.9%	-18.5%	39%	35%	-25.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.5%	35%	-25.9%
10% ← realistic here	-26.3%	35%	-33.0%
15%	-33.4%	30%	-39.5%
20%	-39.9%	26%	-45.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -43% → late +21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$6

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses9 / 14

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage2d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day22.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	48¢	70¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	76¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	Yes	47¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	38¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	10¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 14	$1	$0	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	+$3	+310%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+77%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$1	+$2	+206%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl	Jun 14	$1	$0	-7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$3	$0	+2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$3	+$1	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$1	$0	-5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$2	+$2	+102%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$1	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$1	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$1	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	SELL Up	70¢	$1	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$1	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	28m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	13¢	$4	45m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	54m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$2	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$1	2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	32¢	$1	16h
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	16h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	31¢	$0	16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	47¢	$2	18h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl	SELL Yes	34¢	$1	18h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$1	18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	99¢	$2	19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	94¢	$2	19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	59¢	$2	20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1	21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3	21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	62¢	$1	22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	77¢	$1	22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	74¢	$2	22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$3	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.47 · official $1.22 (match) · 58 history records