Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1b22…e36e
politics · 52 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage331d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 2 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $40 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Aug 10 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 23 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 21 $11 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before August? Jul 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 18 $101 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 17 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 17 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% $0
politics 24% $0
other 23% +$1
tech 11% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $33 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $24 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $41 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $37 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 34h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $39 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $40 5d
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $11 317d
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $11 317d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 50 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.21 · official $37.04 (match) · 154 history records