Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1B 0x1b20…8213 other 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized −$15 · open +$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$20 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$719

Realized−$15

Unrealized+$28

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions9

Markets (closed)1 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	13¢	$152	$182	+$30 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	20¢	$148	$158	+$10 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	14¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$101	$67	−$34 (-33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	6¢	$38	$49	+$11 (+28%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$51	$46	−$4 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$48	$45	−$3 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	4¢	$21	$35	+$14 (+67%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$31	$33	+$3 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$152	3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$104	3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$50	3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$32	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$39	3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$53	3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$54	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$103	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.84 · official $718.84 (match) · 15 history records