Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b1f…a238 crypto 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate43%40W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$119
14 days+$115
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.2% -10.6% 83% 26% -4.5%
≤30d 42 -14.6% -22.8% 67% 29% -7.9%
≤90d 92 -2.7% -11.9% 43% 25% -10.1%
all 92 -2.7% -11.9% 43% 25% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 25% -10.1%
10% -20.4% 21% -18.7%
15% -28.1% 18% -26.6%
20% -35.1% 17% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses40 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage48d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $161 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $197 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $162 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $304 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $146 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $54 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $153 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $111 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $56 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 01 $17 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $41 −$25 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 28 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 28 $41 +$43 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 28 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $25 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $13 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 18 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 18 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 15 $67 +$43 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 15 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $176 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $176 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $155 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $150 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $157 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $143 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $150 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $148 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $104 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $84 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $61 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $63 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $32 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $66 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $71 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $47 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $19 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $23 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $46 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records