Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b1e…2a9a other 16 markets active 6d ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$529per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$6
other 2% +$1
world 1% +$1
economics 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.2%
all 14 +2.9% -6.9% 71% 21% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 21% -9.5%
10% -15.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage540d
Avg bet$529
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 07 $23 +$1 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $22 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 11 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 28 $23 −$3 -14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Oct 28 $23 +$4 +18%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 02 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 02 $26 +$1 +3%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 30 $23 $0 +1%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Dec 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Dec 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 20 $8,088 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 6d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 44d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 44d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 86d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 128d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $22 145d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $23 156d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $22 156d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 229d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 231d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 90¢ $27 231d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 76¢ $23 251d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 256d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 89¢ $27 256d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 256d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 259d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 87¢ $26 261d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 533d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 533d
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $23 534d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? SELL No 96¢ $22 543d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 96¢ $2,020 543d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 96¢ $216 543d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,014 543d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 543d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 543d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 543d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.77 · official $60.77 (match) · 125 history records