Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1b1c…dd4c crypto 564 markets active 2h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$316 (+0%) realized +$315 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate65%366W / 197L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$39
14 days+$68
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$1,780
weather 1% −$1,556
other 1% +$107
economics 1% −$8
politics 0% −$6
world 0% −$12
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 29 -3.1% -12.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 83 -1.6% -10.9% 96% 1% -10.4%
all 563 +0.9% -8.7% 65% 26% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 26% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 24% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 22% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 20% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$40 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$1,508
Realized+$315
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses366 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)563 / 564
History coverage572d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,507 $1,508 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,498 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,490 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,488 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,485 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,479 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,476 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,468 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,464 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,461 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,460 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,446 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,445 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,442 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,439 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,436 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,432 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,436 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $932 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $932 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $930 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,425 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,422 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,421 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $1,417 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $1,409 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $1,397 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,394 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,390 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $1,387 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,384 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,383 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $1,372 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 14 $1,356 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,351 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $1,341 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $1,337 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $1,338 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $1,331 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $1,322 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 07 $1,320 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $1,320 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $1,292 +$25 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 04 $1,293 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 03 $1,291 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? May 02 $1,282 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? May 01 $1,280 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $1,276 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1,275 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,507 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $36 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $55 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $7 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $298 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $930 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $167 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $141 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,080 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $270 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,488 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,485 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,479 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,476 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1,468 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $169 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $399 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $454 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $443 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,461 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,460 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $1,361 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $85 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,445 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,442 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,439 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,436 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,432 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,507.73 · official $1,507.73 (match) · 1424 history records