Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b1a…17fc crypto 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-5%) realized −$107 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%70W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$53
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$86
sports 26% −$62
other 14% +$44
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -20.4% -28.0% 35% 33% -17.5%
≤30d 67 -7.5% -16.3% 34% 33% -10.9%
≤90d 67 -7.5% -16.3% 34% 33% -10.9%
all 197 -7.1% -15.9% 36% 35% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 35% -14.5%
10% -24.0% 35% -22.7%
15% -31.3% 35% -30.1%
20% -38.0% 33% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses70 / 127
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage235d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Over 29¢ 32¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $54 −$54 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$14 +142%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $43 +$22 +52%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $16 +$14 +89%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $24 −$16 -68%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $23 −$22 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $8 −$8 -93%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 +$11 +179%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $6 +$14 +216%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $9 −$7 -86%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $13 +$37 +291%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $59 +$21 +37%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$34 +133%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $11 −$11 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $14 +$16 +114%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $9 +$1 +9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $68 −$33 -48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$11 -70%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$28 +226%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $14 +$16 +118%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $18 +$12 +68%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $17 −$16 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +108%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 +$24 +158%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$23 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 60¢ $25 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 21h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 22h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $7 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $30 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $43 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $7 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 25h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $16 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 26h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $23 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 2d
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.25 · official $31.95 · 458 history records