Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b1a…ee6c crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+6%) realized +$90 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day126.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$31
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 41% -9.2%
≤30d 108 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 41% -9.2%
≤90d 108 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 41% -9.2%
all 108 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 41% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 41% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 41% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 40% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 40% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day126.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Up 63¢ 18¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$22 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 63¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.89 · official $14.68 (match) · 215 history records