Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b16…f24c crypto 1915 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$269 (+1%) realized −$660 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate78%1565W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day69.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$683
7 days−$655
14 days−$581
30 days−$660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 543 -12.7% -21.0% 72% 64% -21.6%
≤30d 2002 -3.9% -13.1% 78% 66% -12.3%
≤90d 2002 -3.9% -13.1% 78% 66% -12.3%
all 2002 -3.9% -13.1% 78% 66% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 66% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 28% -20.7%
15% -29.0% 10% -28.3%
20% -35.9% 5% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$660
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1565 / 437
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2002 / 1915
History coverage28d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day69.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2002 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 71¢ 55¢ $11 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $14 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.75 · official $8.59 (match) · 3500 history records