Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b15…2069 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$12
politics 34% −$10
sports 8% +$24
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -4.0% -13.1% 7% 5% -9.5%
all 127 -3.7% -12.9% 10% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 9% -9.5%
10% -21.2% 6% -18.2%
15% -28.8% 6% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×8.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 114
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage120d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $299 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $208 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $215 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $153 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $309 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $147 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $374 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $157 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $366 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $197 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $161 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $344 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $151 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $160 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $335 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $158 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $145 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $376 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $147 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 37d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $154 38d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $206 38d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 38d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $184 40d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $184 42d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $181 42d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $181 48d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $145 48d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $145 48d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 48d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $168 48d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $208 50d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $208 50d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $161 50d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $161 50d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 51d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 51d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 51d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $203 51d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $212 51d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $212 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 348 history records