Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1b15…6668 crypto 1223 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+1%) realized +$48 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate80%978W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day144.7pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$175
14 days−$125
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$159
other 27% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -17.4% -25.2% 59% 34% -19.5%
≤30d 1219 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 17% -10.6%
≤90d 1219 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 17% -10.6%
all 1219 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 17% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 17% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 8% -19.2%
15% -30.8% 4% -27.0%
20% -37.6% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses978 / 241
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1219 / 1223
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day144.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $45 +$7 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 46m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 47m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $101 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.94 · official $111.94 (match) · 3500 history records