Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b13…debc crypto 107 markets active 5d ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-17%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%34W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -37.0% -43.0% 39% 33% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -37.0% -43.0% 39% 33% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -40.5% -46.1% 32% 24% -30.9%
all 107 -40.5% -46.1% 32% 24% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 24% -30.9%
10% -51.3% 20% -37.5%
15% -56.0% 13% -43.6%
20% -60.3% 10% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses34 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage55d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 14 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 14 $1 +$2 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 14 $11 −$2 -22%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 11 $2 −$1 -39%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 11 $14 −$2 -15%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 10 $10 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 10 $6 −$1 -12%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 10 $35 −$10 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 10 $9 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 10 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 09 $7 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 09 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 09 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 09 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 09 $6 +$4 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $9 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $11 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 36d
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records