Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b0f…bdf9 other 137 markets active 11h ago coverage 367d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$853 (-10%) realized −$853 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%47W / 90L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$45
14 days+$49
30 days−$938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$12
world 35% −$801
crypto 14% −$146
sports 3% +$9
politics 1% −$7
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 15% -8.5%
≤30d 51 -19.1% -26.8% 20% 14% -21.1%
≤90d 63 -15.1% -23.2% 27% 19% -20.1%
all 137 -14.2% -22.4% 34% 28% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 28% -19.4%
10% -29.8% 27% -27.1%
15% -36.6% 22% -34.2%
20% -42.8% 16% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$853
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses47 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage367d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,112 +$27 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 14 $210 −$5 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $32 −$2 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $52 −$2 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 12 $201 −$2 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$14 +66%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $603 −$18 -3%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $302 −$8 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 25 $11 −$8 -78%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? May 25 $15 −$7 -44%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $574 −$374 -65%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $18 +$4 +24%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $86 −$18 -21%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 25 $265 −$38 -14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $375 −$30 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 25 $79 −$24 -31%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 24 $210 −$99 -47%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 24 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $20 −$19 -93%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $13 −$12 -89%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $88 −$81 -92%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? May 24 $102 −$72 -71%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 24 $54 −$26 -47%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 24 $99 −$54 -54%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $592 −$81 -14%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 24 $556 −$6 -1%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? May 24 $102 −$5 -4%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? May 23 $31 −$5 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 20? May 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,112 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 13¢ $1 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 79¢ $90 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $100 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 79¢ $205 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $49 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 87¢ $199 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 38¢ $34 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $488 5d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $294 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 6d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 6d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $210 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $201 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $97 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 405 history records