Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b0f…90bc other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$415 (+16%) realized +$441 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%30W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$3
14 days+$212
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$664
world 22% +$148
weather 13% +$12
politics 10% +$914
tech 10% −$55
sports 1% −$9
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.0% -11.3% 72% 33% -8.6%
≤30d 21 +24.8% +12.9% 76% 43% +39.6%
≤90d 22 +24.6% +12.8% 77% 45% +39.4%
all 57 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 32% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 32% +6.3%
10% -15.5% 18% -3.8%
15% -23.7% 14% -13.1%
20% -31.1% 12% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$31 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized+$441
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses30 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)57 / 76
History coverage235d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? No 90¢ 92¢ $157 $160 +$3 (+2%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? No 65¢ 68¢ $31 $33 +$1 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $14 $8 −$7 (-46%)
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? No 87¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 41¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-95%)
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? No 89¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $88 +$5 +6%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 22 $16 −$2 -13%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 +17%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$3 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 16 $6 −$5 -88%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 15 $48 +$76 +159%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $35 +$132 +382%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 21 $2 $0 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 08 $7 +$2 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 06 $5 $0 +6%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 06 $2 $0 +20%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 25 $12 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $1 +$4 +333%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 27 $6 −$6 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-18? Dec 19 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17? Dec 18 $5 $0 +3%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) Dec 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Warriors vs. Suns Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-18? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Sabres Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? Dec 17 $1 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? Dec 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30? Dec 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China by November 30? Nov 30 $130 +$904 +697%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Nov 17 $82 −$3 -4%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 16 $127 +$13 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 64¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $9 6h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 6h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 85¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $8 7h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 68¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 67¢ $3 8h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $50 8h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $9 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.28 · official $323.28 (match) · 416 history records