Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b0b…cdfc sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,248 (+8%) realized +$1,264 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%37W / 36L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$293
14 days+$420
30 days+$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,122
other 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.0% -22.1% 50% 50% +4.3%
≤30d 3 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 33% +1.0%
≤90d 3 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 33% +1.0%
all 73 -9.1% -17.8% 51% 34% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 34% -2.7%
10% -25.7% 22% -12.0%
15% -32.8% 16% -20.5%
20% -39.4% 12% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$35 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1,264
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses37 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage161d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Chicago Sky 21¢ 40¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+93%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 33¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $100 −$47 -47%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,809 +$339 +19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,707 +$128 +8%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $1,164 +$548 +47%
Nets vs. Bulls Feb 08 $14 +$6 +45%
Blues vs. Oilers Feb 08 $54 +$33 +61%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Feb 08 $300 +$7 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings Jan 19 $54 −$10 -18%
Raptors vs. Lakers Jan 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons Jan 19 $171 −$171 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Green Bay Phoenix Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Lightning vs. Stars Jan 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Magic vs. Grizzlies Jan 18 $1,090 +$9 +1%
Washington State Cougars vs. San Francisco Dons Jan 18 $128 −$128 -100%
American Eagles vs. Army Black Knights Jan 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $19 +$7 +38%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jan 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Wizards vs. Nuggets Jan 18 $53 +$10 +19%
BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jan 18 $200 +$17 +8%
Suns vs. Knicks Jan 18 $261 +$67 +26%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $689 +$157 +23%
Pacers vs. Pistons Jan 18 $37 +$7 +19%
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 18 $5 $0 -3%
UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) Jan 18 $11 $0 -1%
Hornets vs. Warriors Jan 18 $20 −$4 -20%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jan 18 $221 +$39 +18%
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Florida International Golden Panthers Jan 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Northern Illinois Huskies Jan 18 $105 +$65 +62%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $659 −$320 -48%
Rider Broncs vs. Saint Peter's Peacocks Jan 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Georgetown Hoyas Jan 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Florida Gators vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Jan 18 $72 +$69 +96%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers Jan 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bucknell Bison vs. Colgate Raiders Jan 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Butler Bulldogs vs. Seton Hall Pirates Jan 17 $41 +$100 +245%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners Jan 17 $245 +$34 +14%
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers Jan 17 $54 +$7 +14%
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs Jan 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Jan 17 $200 −$29 -14%
Boston Terriers vs. Loyola Maryland Greyhounds Jan 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $10 +$27 +270%
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Navy Midshipmen vs. Lehigh Mountain Hawks Jan 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jan 17 $68 −$10 -14%
Knicks vs. Trail Blazers Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Thunder Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 12¢ $7 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 82¢ $50 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 81¢ $0 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 81¢ $46 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 86¢ $50 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 21¢ $10 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 30¢ $20 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 32¢ $10 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 34¢ $15 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,809 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 92¢ $1,834 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $1,202 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 68¢ $505 10d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 68¢ $1,164 132d
Trail Blazers vs. Kings BUY Kings 22¢ $10 152d
Trail Blazers vs. Kings SELL Trail Blazers 78¢ $61 152d
Raptors vs. Lakers BUY Raptors 46¢ $20 152d
Hornets vs. Nuggets BUY Hornets 98¢ $300 152d
Trail Blazers vs. Kings BUY Trail Blazers 58¢ $40 152d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 96¢ $700 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies SELL Magic $37 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Magic $5 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Magic $5 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Magic $50 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies SELL Grizzlies 91¢ $217 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 84¢ $200 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies SELL Magic 16¢ $19 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Magic 25¢ $30 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies SELL Grizzlies 75¢ $95 153d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 79¢ $100 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.18 · official $39.14 (match) · 249 history records