Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b08…dd9b other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$148 (-7%) realized −$147 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%24W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$53
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$92
sports 20% −$61
politics 7% −$41
crypto 3% +$17
tech 1% −$1
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -24.8% -31.9% 33% 33% -15.7%
≤30d 54 -19.2% -26.9% 31% 31% -16.3%
≤90d 91 -9.0% -17.6% 26% 25% -18.6%
all 91 -9.0% -17.6% 26% 25% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 25% -18.6%
10% -25.5% 25% -26.4%
15% -32.7% 24% -33.5%
20% -39.3% 21% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses24 / 67
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 96
History coverage45d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $31 −$3 -11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$1 -2%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 +$20 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$3 -46%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$5 +119%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$51 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -47%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 +$46 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $15 −$4 -24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 +$17 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$15 +52%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $62 −$6 -10%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +276%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$22 -83%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$23 +226%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 11h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 29¢ $9 20h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 23¢ $41 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $35 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Tunisia 50¢ $20 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 32h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $20 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 42h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $20 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $60 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY 27¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.10 · official $29.10 (match) · 235 history records