Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b06…9bb4 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 312d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,613 (-55%) realized −$1,613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$557
7 days−$850
14 days−$1,531
30 days−$1,531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1,380
sports 37% −$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-65.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -45.9% -51.0% 20% 0% -63.3%
≤30d 6 -54.9% -59.2% 17% 0% -75.1%
≤90d 6 -54.9% -59.2% 17% 0% -75.1%
all 7 -61.3% -65.0% 14% 0% -76.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.0% 0% -76.4%
10% -68.4% 0% -78.6%
15% -71.4% 0% -80.7%
20% -74.2% 0% -82.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$274 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage312d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 +$3 +10%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $98 −$70 -71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $587 −$489 -83%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $879 −$81 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $536 −$212 -40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $685 −$682 -100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 16 $108 −$108 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $28 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $98 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $97 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $587 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $183 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $183 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $183 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $183 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $182 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $182 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $180 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $172 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $224 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $231 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $151 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $151 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $312 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $685 11d
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev BUY Du Plessis 30¢ $108 312d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records