Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b06…d591 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-12%) realized +$80 · open −$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$272
sports 20% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -39.2% -45.0% 14% 14% -28.2%
≤30d 7 -39.2% -45.0% 14% 14% -28.2%
≤90d 7 -39.2% -45.0% 14% 14% -28.2%
all 7 -39.2% -45.0% 14% 14% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 14% -28.2%
10% -50.3% 14% -35.1%
15% -55.1% 14% -41.3%
20% -59.5% 14% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$30 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $128 $4 −$124 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 +$133 +325%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $131 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 7h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.99 · official $3.99 (match) · 11 history records