Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1b06…506b crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%11W / 1L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.9% -15.7% 92% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 12 -6.9% -15.7% 92% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 12 -6.9% -15.7% 92% 0% -8.6%
all 12 -6.9% -15.7% 92% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 0% -8.6%
10% -23.8% 0% -17.3%
15% -31.2% 0% -25.3%
20% -37.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.8 per $1 lost it wins $20.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses11 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $343 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $154 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $74 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $74 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $91 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $152 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records