Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1b03…3d8e crypto 1656 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$26 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate91%1509W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day137.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$116
14 days−$124
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$60
other 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1295 -1.7% -11.1% 94% 4% -10.8%
≤30d 1667 -1.6% -11.0% 91% 7% -10.5%
≤90d 1667 -1.6% -11.0% 91% 7% -10.5%
all 1667 -1.6% -11.0% 91% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 7% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 3% -19.1%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.9%
20% -34.4% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1509 / 158
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1667 / 1656
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day137.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1667 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 99¢ 88¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 99¢ 74¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +40%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 10m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 20m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 25m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $5 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 50m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 55m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 55m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.96 · official $21.08 (match) · 3500 history records