Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:02:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1B 0x1b02…e3aa crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$143 (+7%) realized +$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 47% -8.9%
≤30d 43 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 47% -8.9%
≤90d 43 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 47% -8.9%
all 43 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 47% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 47% -8.9%
10% -10.7% 47% -17.6%
15% -19.3% 40% -25.6%
20% -27.3% 35% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$38 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $135 −$131 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$44 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $159 +$82 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $160 +$48 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $123 +$91 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$27 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $158 +$61 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $162 +$76 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $157 −$156 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $89 +$22 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $83 +$227 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $89 −$26 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$43 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$9 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $41 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records