Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1afe…b6e4
sports · 53 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$299 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$298 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage104d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days−$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 59¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 89¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner JD Gaming 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$2 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $18 +$1 +5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $58 +$8 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $10 −$5 -49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $132 −$103 -78%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $89 +$15 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 02 $224 −$141 -63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 27 $88 +$7 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $68 +$16 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 22 $53 −$38 -71%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 22 $57 −$38 -66%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $186 +$28 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $56 +$8 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $58 +$27 +47%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $100 +$9 +9%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $58 −$55 -94%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $18 +$7 +39%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $5 −$2 -36%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $28 +$15 +54%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $38 +$42 +111%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 08 $4 −$4 -96%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 08 $18 −$4 -20%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 08 $8 +$3 +38%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $8 +$6 +69%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $8 +$1 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 07 $18 +$11 +59%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 04 $103 +$24 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 04 $48 −$33 -68%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 04 $8 $0 -2%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Mar 04 $18 −$3 -19%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 04 $45 −$39 -86%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 04 $38 +$7 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 03 $46 +$14 +29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 03 $18 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$149
crypto 12% −$149
culture 6% −$3
world 2% +$7
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $3 10m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 59¢ $2 13m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 4¢ $0 18m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 44¢ $2 38m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $1 40m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $4 41m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $3 42m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $2 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $4 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $3 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $2 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 61¢ $4 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $2 7h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 8h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 16¢ $1 17h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $48 21h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $6 21h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $3 21h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $5 22h
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks SELL Zhejiang Lions 1¢ $0 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 64¢ $10 13d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Zhejiang Lions 46¢ $5 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 94¢ $17 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner SELL JD Gaming 28¢ $5 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 56¢ $10 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 56¢ $10 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +31.4% +18.8% 89% 78% +1.3%
≤30d 15 +4.1% -5.9% 73% 53% -9.8%
≤90d 35 -12.3% -20.7% 60% 46% -24.4%
all 51 -10.6% -19.1% 59% 49% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 49% -21.8%
10% -26.8% 31% -29.3%
15% -33.9% 20% -36.1%
20% -40.4% 12% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.93 (match) · 127 history records