Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1afd…427e sports 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$259 (-4%) realized −$210 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%86W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$248
14 days+$246
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +72.7% +56.2% 79% 79% +39.0%
≤30d 34 +67.6% +51.6% 76% 76% +38.4%
≤90d 156 +8.7% -1.6% 55% 51% -13.7%
all 156 +8.7% -1.6% 55% 51% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 51% -13.7%
10% -11.1% 48% -22.0%
15% -19.6% 43% -29.5%
20% -27.5% 35% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$31 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses86 / 70
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage51d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 43¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $73 +$43 +60%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $26 +$43 +167%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $81 +$33 +42%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$11 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $5 +$4 +85%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +180%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $21 +$11 +52%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$5 +39%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$6 +32%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 13 $22 +$11 +52%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$5 +474%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$6 +226%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$5 +226%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$8 +42%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$6 +145%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs Invicta (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $26 +$8 +30%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $3 +$5 +172%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$3 +33%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 12 $3 +$5 +180%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 12 $59 +$14 +23%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$6 +152%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 +$5 +62%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 11 $152 +$130 +86%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner May 11 $203 +$154 +76%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P May 08 $30 +$18 +62%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 May 06 $317 +$320 +101%
Santos: Valerio Aboian vs Pedro Sakamoto May 06 $102 +$36 +36%
Valorant: Division One vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 May 06 $101 +$91 +90%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner May 06 $101 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club - Map 1 Winner May 05 $31 +$31 +101%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 05 $102 −$12 -12%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B May 05 $264 −$260 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 05 $101 −$100 -98%
LoL: BIG vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - Prime League 1st Div May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Set Handicap: Volynets (-1.5) vs Semenistaja (+1.5) May 05 $20 +$29 +140%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 05 $102 +$41 +40%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs BoyBand (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Regular May 05 $101 +$65 +65%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner May 05 $102 +$91 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 62¢ $73 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 51¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 37¢ $26 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 70¢ $81 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 34¢ $17 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 50¢ $33 6h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 80¢ $4 19h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 81¢ $4 19h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $12 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 45h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 39¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 40¢ $4 2d
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 49¢ $6 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 35¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 32¢ $3 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 36¢ $5 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 36¢ $3 3d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 65¢ $11 3d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 65¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 24¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 72¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Ursa 70¢ $19 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $2 4d
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY Ursa 30¢ $2 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 17¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs Invicta (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY Washed 77¢ $26 4d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 36¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 310 history records