Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1afd…71ac crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$74
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$64
other 15% −$24
sports 11% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.3% -9.8% 65% 43% -4.9%
≤30d 37 -0.3% -9.8% 65% 43% -4.9%
≤90d 58 -6.9% -15.8% 53% 40% -7.9%
all 58 -6.9% -15.8% 53% 40% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 40% -7.9%
10% -23.8% 26% -16.7%
15% -31.2% 19% -24.7%
20% -37.9% 17% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage77d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 69¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $128 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $128 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $128 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $41 −$37 -91%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$47 -91%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $91 +$64 +70%
Norway to score first vs. France? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 12 $4 −$3 -64%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$2 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $27 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $31 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $28 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $28 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $39 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $14 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $37 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $30 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $28 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $106 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.82 · official $18.30 · 136 history records