Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1af9…bebe crypto 5 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-10%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 80% -21.2%
≤30d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 80% -21.2%
≤90d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 80% -21.2%
all 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 80% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 80% -21.2%
10% -16.4% 60% -28.8%
15% -24.5% 20% -35.6%
20% -31.9% 0% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$22 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records